In the intricate dance of geopolitical maneuvering, the Russians are resolute in their ambition to secure Chasiv Yar. The urgency arises from their desire to act swiftly before the arrival of American military aid, which poses a strategic threat to the Ukrainian logistical network stretching from North to Central Donbas. Of notable significance is the Russian capture of Ocheretino, a vital supply hub located just west of Avdiivka and south of Konstantinovka, marking a substantial victory.
Following the takeover of Ocheretino, Russian forces wasted no time in pushing their offensive, targeting the settlement of Novobakhmutivka. In Chasiv Yar, they strategically seized the heights of Kalinovka, securing a commanding position for capturing the northern sector of the city.
The accelerated pace of Russian operations to capture Chasiv Yar is driven by its strategic importance in controlling northern Donbas and establishing a fortified stronghold in the region. This urgency is compounded by impending Ukrainian shipments of arms and ammunition.
Chasiv Yar holds the key to Seversk, granting Russia a significant advantage in the region regardless of Western aid to Ukraine. The consensus among analysts is that the fall of Chasiv Yar will inevitably lead to the capture of Seversk.
This objective not only facilitates direct links with Sloviansk-Kramatorsk for the first time but also poses a challenge for Ukrainian forces to protect these twin cities. Control of the route from Konstantinovka, crucial for safeguarding Sloviansk-Kramatorsk, hinges on the party that commands Chasiv Yar.
Recent developments on April 22, 23, and 24 highlight significant movements in the conflict theater. Reports from April 23 indicate a notable buildup of Russian troops, estimated between 20,000 to 25,000, encroaching upon the eastern Ukrainian city of Chasiv Yar and its adjacent areas. Despite this, the Ukrainian military asserts its control over Chasiv Yar, a strategically vital position within the partially occupied Donetsk region. There’s speculation that Russia aims to capture the city by May 9, coinciding with Soviet Victory Day in World War II.
Nazar Voloshin, the Eastern Command’s spokesperson for the Ukrainian army, maintains confidence amidst the mounting tensions. He assures the public via national television that the situation, while tense, is manageable. Voloshin emphasizes the reinforcement of defenses against the gathering Russian forces, emphasizing the influx of reinforcements to bolster the city’s protection.
In a positive turn of events on April 24, reports from Ukrainian sources suggest a potential shift in momentum. Ukrainian forces have successfully recaptured previously lost territories east of Chasiv Yar, following continuous Russian offensive operations on April 23. Geolocation footage from April 22 exhibits progress made by Ukrainian armed forces southeast of Ivanovskoye, situated to the east of Chasiv Yar.
Contrary to these reports, Apti Alaudinov, commander of Russia’s “Akhmat” Chechen special forces, claims the capture of several Ukrainian positions on the western flanks of Klescheevka, located southeast of Chasiv Yar. However, this information awaits verification by ISW analysts.
