
In the next two years, China is positioned to achieve a significant strategic advantage over the United States in the western Pacific, particularly west of the 180° meridian. This shift in power will be marked by a twelvefold increase in China’s modern fighter aircraft, including a fivefold rise in fifth-generation jets. Additionally, China’s bomber fleet, consisting of 225 aircraft, will establish its air force as the regional leader in this domain, raising concerns within U.S. military circles.
Brigadier General Doug Wickert, commander of the 412th Test Wing at Edwards Air Force Base, confirmed these projections. The 412th Test Wing plays a critical role in testing and advancing new aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, thus influencing future air power concepts. Wickert’s remarks underscore the rapid shift in the regional balance of power, with China’s growing air capabilities poised to surpass those of the U.S.
The projected twelvefold increase in China’s air assets, based on a numerical count of aircraft, is a stark indicator of the changing regional dynamics. China currently operates over 2,200 combat aircraft, including bombers, fighter-bombers, multirole fighters, and interceptors. The outdated assumption that China relies heavily on obsolete Soviet-era aircraft has been dispelled, with only 18% of its fleet comprising Chengdu J-7s and Shenyang J-8s, both of which are modernized variants of older designs.
The bulk of China’s air power includes approximately 600 Chengdu J-10 light fighters and around 600 Shenyang J-11s, which are indigenous versions of the Su-27. This force is supplemented by around 100 carrier-based aircraft. In contrast, the U.S. fleet is smaller in terms of certain aircraft types, such as the Su-30MK and Su-35, which do not significantly alter the regional balance.
The most formidable element of China’s air force is its fleet of over 200 J-20 stealth fighters, which represent the cutting edge of Chinese aerospace technology. As older aircraft are phased out, the proportion of advanced fighters in China’s inventory will continue to grow. In addition, China fields approximately 200 JH-7 fighter-bombers and more than 200 H-6 long-range bombers, alongside specialized aircraft for electronic warfare, reconnaissance, and air refueling. The fleet also includes over 1,000 training and transport aircraft, enhancing its operational flexibility.
On the other hand, the U.S. operates around 3,150 combat aircraft across various branches, including over 370 F-15s, more than 800 F-16s, over 900 F/A-18s, and roughly 180 F-22 Raptors. While China’s fleet has expanded numerically, the U.S. maintains a clear advantage in fifth-generation fighter technology, where it has made substantial investments. In terms of bombers, the U.S. operates 122 aircraft, including B-1 Lancers, B-2 Spirits, and B-52 Stratofortresses. While China’s modernization of the H-6 bomber has enhanced its long-range strike capabilities, the B-52, despite its age, remains a critical component of U.S. strategic deterrence.
The key to understanding the Chinese advantage in the region lies in the geographical and strategic context. China’s lead west of the 180° meridian is largely due to the limited number of U.S. air bases in the area, which restricts the deployment of U.S. air power. In response, the U.S. has committed significant resources to modernizing its air bases in the Pacific, such as the $409 million investment in the restoration of West Field, a historic base dating back to World War II.
Historically, air power has been pivotal in maintaining the balance of power in the Pacific. During the Cold War, the U.S. leveraged its extensive network of air bases to project power and ensure stability. Today, with China’s growing capabilities, these bases are again crucial to U.S. strategic planning. The modernization of these facilities is part of a broader effort to counter China’s rising influence in the region.
China’s rapid expansion in air power is driven by its desire for strategic autonomy and reduced dependence on foreign technologies. Over recent decades, China has invested heavily in research and development, producing sophisticated aircraft such as the J-20 and the upcoming J-31. These advancements are not only aimed at strengthening China’s defense capabilities but also at asserting its military presence in the region.
In response, the U.S. is enhancing its own air capabilities through new air warfare strategies, the integration of artificial intelligence, and the deployment of autonomous systems. The U.S. is also modernizing its existing fleet and expanding its fifth-generation fighter capabilities. Additionally, strengthening military alliances with countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia plays a crucial role in countering China’s growing influence.
In conclusion, while China’s numerical superiority in certain areas is evident, the U.S. maintains a strategic edge through its ability to project power globally and its robust network of allies and partners. The ongoing competition for dominance in the Pacific will continue to shape the geopolitical rivalry between these two superpowers, influencing the future of regional and global security.