European nations may soon face pressure to commit billions toward U.S. arms purchases as part of a broader effort to secure Washington’s security guarantees for Ukraine. Analysts suggest Europe has little room to maneuver—despite wanting to channel more funds into strengthening its own defense sector.
In recent days, transatlantic discussions have centered on how Western powers could shield Kyiv from future Russian aggression once a peace deal is reached. While former President Donald Trump has floated the idea of the U.S. taking the lead in any such arrangement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reportedly offered to purchase $90 billion worth of American weapons to keep Washington actively engaged.
By midweek, U.S. Vice President JD Vance made clear that Washington expected Europe to shoulder most of the financial burden. “Whatever the format, Europe is going to carry the bulk of the responsibility,” Vance told Fox News. “It’s their region, their security, and the president has been clear—they need to step up.”
This could translate into Europe spending up to $90 billion in exchange for U.S. support, a clear reflection of Trump’s “transactional” approach to foreign policy. However, the arrangement remains uncertain. Since Trump’s August 15 meeting in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow has openly opposed Western troop deployments in Ukraine and insisted it must be involved in any security guarantees—conditions Kyiv is unlikely to accept.
Not all European leaders are on board with the concept. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico voiced strong opposition, saying: “Even in the worst nightmare, I cannot imagine Slovakia buying U.S. weapons and then sending them for free to the front in Ukraine.”
The proposal also clashes with the EU’s ambitions to strengthen its domestic defense industry. Brussels recently launched the SAFE program, which allocates €150 billion in loans to member states to boost military spending, with priority given to European-made equipment. When asked whether EU funds might be diverted toward U.S. arms, a European Commission spokesperson deflected, emphasizing instead the bloc’s ongoing support for Ukraine and its push for greater defense integration through SAFE.
Defense experts argue Europe’s reliance on U.S. systems like Patriot missiles leaves it with limited alternatives. “If we don’t produce them ourselves, we have to buy,” said Yohann Michel of the French IESD think tank. “Europe needs Ukraine to hold the line. If it collapses, European security is directly at risk. In the short term, paying the U.S. is unavoidable—it’s essentially what Europe has done for decades.” He noted that many nations buying the F-35 admit they are, in effect, purchasing American security guarantees.
Christian Mölling, senior advisor at the European Policy Center, observed that European officials are deliberately avoiding public debate on the potential price tag until firm security commitments are in place. Yet he also acknowledged Europe’s limited choices: “There is no real substitute for Patriot systems. I don’t think Brussels would hand over $90 billion in one payment, but smaller sums spread out over time seem likely.”
