The production and delivery of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, the Pentagon’s most advanced stealth fighter, are set to increase significantly in 2025 and 2026. More than 100 aircraft are expected to be delivered to international buyers amid growing geopolitical tensions.
However, in recent weeks, concerns have emerged from countries such as Canada and Germany, where officials have hinted at reassessing their commitments to the jet. These concerns stem from speculation about a potential “kill switch”—a theoretical function that could enable the United States to remotely disable the aircraft.
Lockheed Martin has strongly refuted the existence of such a mechanism, and industry experts argue that despite these concerns, it remains unlikely that these nations will withdraw from the F-35 program. Factors such as binding contracts, logistical challenges, and a lack of suitable alternatives indicate that these discussions may be more political in nature, possibly influenced by the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. With deliveries approaching, a key question remains: if these countries were to opt out, what alternative aircraft could take the F-35’s place?
The F-35 program, a vital component of modern airpower, is expected to deliver between 170 and 190 units worldwide in 2025, a significant rise from 110 the previous year, according to Lockheed Martin’s latest projections. Of these, approximately 40 to 60 will be allocated to international partners, with this number increasing to 50 to 70 in 2026 as new customers, including Germany and Canada, join the roster.
This increase follows years of production challenges, including delays associated with the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) software update, which enhances the aircraft’s sensor capabilities and weapons integration. By late 2024, Lockheed Martin had resolved most of these issues, enabling the company to begin addressing a backlog of aircraft awaiting delivery.
The United States plans to receive around 70 to 80 F-35s annually for its Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps. However, the focus has increasingly shifted to international allies, particularly as they seek to strengthen their defenses against threats from nations such as Russia and China.
Canada signed a $14 billion agreement in early 2023 for 88 F-35As, with the first aircraft expected to arrive in 2026. Similarly, Germany committed to acquiring 35 F-35As in 2022 to replace its aging Tornado fleet, with initial deliveries also slated for that year.
Both countries are key NATO members, deeply integrated into Western defense frameworks that emphasize interoperability with U.S. military systems. Despite this, recent remarks from officials have sparked debate. Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair, speaking at a security summit in Ottawa, expressed the need to “reassess our procurement strategy” due to unspecified concerns regarding reliance on U.S. technology.
Meanwhile, in Germany, a senior member of the Green Party, part of the ruling coalition, questioned whether the F-35 might have “hidden risks,” fueling speculation about a remote deactivation capability.
Lockheed Martin quickly dismissed these claims. “There is no such thing as a kill switch in the F-35,” a company spokesperson told Defense News in February 2025. “The aircraft’s systems are designed to ensure national sovereignty and security, with each country maintaining full operational control.”
The U.S. Department of Defense echoed this stance, with an official stating that the F-35’s hardware and software undergo strict oversight by partner nations, many of whom actively contribute to its development through the Joint Strike Fighter program. Despite these reassurances, speculation continues, fueled by discussions on social media platforms like X, where users have debated the extent of U.S. influence over allied military assets.
Some link these concerns to President Trump’s return to office in January 2025, citing his administration’s “America First” policies and strong stance on NATO defense contributions as potential drivers of allied skepticism.
Nevertheless, experts see little likelihood of a large-scale withdrawal from the F-35 program. Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, argues that geopolitical considerations outweigh political rhetoric. “These countries aren’t just purchasing an aircraft—they’re investing in a strategic partnership,” he explained. “Given Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and China’s growing assertiveness in the Pacific, NATO members and their allies need the F-35’s capabilities more than ever.”
For Canada, its aging CF-18 Hornets are nearing the end of their operational lifespan, while Germany’s Tornado aircraft lack the stealth and advanced networking capabilities necessary for modern warfare. Opting out of the F-35 program would leave both nations with significant gaps in their defense capabilities, with few viable alternatives available.
Production constraints further complicate any potential withdrawal. Lockheed Martin’s Fort Worth, Texas, facility is already manufacturing components for the 2025 and 2026 production cycles, with international orders locked into long-term agreements covering 375 jets through 2026. Exiting these contracts would result in substantial financial penalties—potentially amounting to billions of dollars—and would disrupt a global supply chain involving numerous subcontractors.
For Canada, backing out now would mean forfeiting deposits and delaying its fighter fleet modernization by several years. Germany, which has already started upgrading its airbases to accommodate the F-35, would face similar logistical challenges. “The sunk costs are massive,” noted Caitlin Lee, an airpower analyst at the RAND Corporation. “At this stage, turning back would be highly disruptive.”
As for alternatives, the F-35’s combination of stealth, sensor fusion, and multirole functionality makes it unique, though other fifth-generation fighters exist. Russia’s Su-57 Felon, introduced in 2020, features stealth characteristics and supercruise capability but has struggled with production delays, with fewer than 20 in service. Western sanctions have also hindered Russia’s aerospace sector, making the Su-57 an unrealistic option for NATO members.
China’s J-20 Mighty Dragon, another fifth-generation jet, has been produced in larger numbers—over 200 by 2024, according to Jane’s Defence Weekly—but its restricted export policy and incompatibility with Western defense systems make it an impractical alternative.
Among Western options, the Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale stand out. The Typhoon, used by Germany and the UK, is a strong air-to-air combat platform but lacks the F-35’s stealth and networked warfare capabilities. France’s Rafale, marketed as a “sovereign alternative,” provides greater autonomy from U.S. oversight but does not match the F-35 in stealth or sensor integration.
Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, previously considered by Canada, offers a lower operating cost—approximately $18,000 per flight hour compared to the F-35’s $35,000—but is not a stealth aircraft, making it vulnerable to advanced air defense systems.
Ultimately, the F-35’s ability to operate in contested airspace, share real-time intelligence with allied forces, and deploy precision-guided weaponry makes it irreplaceable within NATO’s strategic framework. While alternatives exist, none provide a comparable level of capability.
Despite the ongoing debate, there is no recorded instance of an F-35 being remotely disabled. Nations such as the UK and Israel, which operate their own variants, have access to the aircraft’s source code and maintenance infrastructure, ensuring operational independence.
While concerns about U.S. control persist, especially under Trump’s leadership, experts suggest that these discussions often serve as negotiation tactics rather than genuine intentions to withdraw from the program. “This is about leverage,” Aboulafia said. “Countries raise doubts to secure better terms or signal dissatisfaction, not because they’re seriously considering walking away.”
Looking forward, the F-35’s global presence is expected to expand. Japan is set to receive 8 to 12 units in 2026, including F-35Bs for its carriers, while Finland begins receiving its first batch of 64. Poland, South Korea, and Italy are also among the nations tied to ongoing production cycles.
As Lockheed Martin moves toward its target of 156 annual deliveries by mid-decade, the likelihood of major defections remains low. The political discourse may continue, but the operational and strategic benefits of the F-35 keep it at the forefront of modern airpower.
