The Russian Ministry of Defense plans to incorporate AI technologies into Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, known in Russia as Geran-2, as part of an effort to overcome Ukraine’s air defense systems, according to the British newspaper The Guardian and reports from Clash Report.
By integrating AI into these drones, their capabilities could be significantly enhanced. Originally designed for mass, low-cost strikes, these drones have relied on basic guidance systems. However, with AI, their ability to navigate, evade defense systems, and target key infrastructure could be greatly improved, presenting a new challenge to Ukraine’s advanced air defenses.
AI could enable the drones to make real-time decisions based on sensor data, improving their situational awareness. Unlike current models, which rely on pre-set flight paths or GPS and are vulnerable to jamming, AI-equipped drones could adjust their course mid-flight to avoid detection and countermeasures. For instance, machine learning could help the drones detect radar emissions from systems like Patriot or NASAMS and alter their trajectory to evade interception. This autonomy could potentially overwhelm sophisticated air defense systems designed to track and neutralize predictable threats.
An AI-powered swarm of drones could deploy decoys to confuse defenses, while others focus on hitting high-value targets, exploiting the limitations of defense systems like Gepard or MIM-23 Hawk, which have limited ammunition and tracking range. Even advanced systems like NASAMS could struggle to handle multiple, unpredictable threats from different directions.
Additionally, AI could enhance targeting precision by processing images from onboard cameras or infrared sensors, ensuring the drones strike their intended targets with greater accuracy. This capability might allow drones to bypass decoys or avoid striking non-essential structures, making even well-defended positions more vulnerable.
However, Ukraine’s integrated air defense network has shown resilience, successfully intercepting a significant portion of incoming threats. Systems like Patriot and NASAMS can track and neutralize multiple aerial threats, while Ukraine has deployed electronic warfare tools that could disrupt AI-powered drones, potentially jamming communications or corrupting sensor data.
The success of AI in drones will depend on their ability to operate autonomously without relying on external guidance and to withstand Ukraine’s robust electronic countermeasures. Close-range defenses like Germany’s Gepard, which uses rapid-fire cannons, may remain effective against AI-enhanced drones, though their limited engagement range and ammo supply could pose challenges in prolonged attacks.
While AI integration could shift the tactical balance, its success in consistently overcoming advanced defenses will depend on the sophistication of the AI systems, their resistance to electronic warfare, and the scale at which these drones are deployed. To stay ahead, Ukraine must continue investing in advanced air defense technologies, counter-swarm systems, and electronic warfare capabilities.
Russia has significantly increased its production of the Shahed-136 drones, locally called Geran-2, in partnership with Iran. These drones are mainly produced at facilities such as the Alabuga industrial complex in Tatarstan, with modifications to simplify production and cut costs, including using a cheaper MD-550 engine from China. As a result, Russia is now capable of producing up to 900 drones per month.
In addition to the Geran-2, Russia manufactures other kamikaze drones, such as the Lancet loitering munition, which boasts improved targeting capabilities and a more compact design. The Lancet is primarily used against military equipment and infrastructure. Another notable drone is the Gerbera, often used in coordinated strikes to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
The increase in drone production has allowed Russia to conduct regular and large-scale attacks, using drones to find and exploit weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defense systems. This ongoing campaign underscores the role of loitering munitions in modern warfare, as they can exhaust and bypass sophisticated air defense systems like Patriot and NASAMS.
However, the ability to maintain these production rates depends on continued access to critical components, particularly from suppliers in China and other international sources.
