France’s recent military aid announcement regarding Ukraine notably omits the inclusion of Dassault Rafale fighter jets. This decision was conveyed by French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecorneux on October 14, in response to inquiries about the potential transfer of these advanced aircraft to Kyiv.

Reports from Le Monde indicate that discussions among President Emmanuel Macron’s advisers had contemplated the early retirement of Rafale jets from the French Air Force to facilitate their deployment to Ukraine. However, Minister Lecorneux opposed this notion, highlighting the strategic complexities involved.

The consideration of supplying Rafale jets to Ukraine is not new; prior to Russia’s invasion in March 2021, Macron had explored the possibility of selling Rafale aircraft to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, marking it as a key priority for his administration.

Several factors contribute to France’s refusal to provide Rafale jets. First, the situation is complicated by both strategic concerns and production limitations. France’s manufacturing capacity for new Rafale jets is currently at its peak, and reallocating aircraft to Ukraine would jeopardize existing commitments to other nations, including India and Qatar.

Additionally, there are apprehensions that transferring Rafale jets could disrupt the balance of power in the ongoing conflict, particularly given the high operational risks and the lack of comprehensive control over airspace. Both Ukraine and Russia have not fully secured their skies, leading to a battlefield environment characterized by significant anti-aircraft missile usage and robust air defense systems. Many French military analysts express skepticism about the viability of the Ukrainian military effectively utilizing such aircraft amid challenging front-line conditions and the potential for escalated conflict.

Over the past two years, the Dassault Rafale has solidified its status as a highly coveted fighter jet, competing effectively with advanced platforms like the F-35. From 2022 to October 2024, multiple nations have confirmed their acquisition of Rafale jets, with most agreements in various stages of completion.

For example, India has signed a contract for an additional 36 Rafale jets, raising its total to 36 delivered since 2020. The United Arab Emirates secured an order for 80 aircraft in 2021, with some deliveries already executed in 2022. Egypt has contracted for 30 Rafales, commencing deliveries as early as 2022, while Greece has finalized a purchase of 24 jets. Qatar ordered 36 Rafales, with deliveries beginning in late 2022. Croatia also procured 12 Rafales in 2021, and Serbia is the latest country to acquire this French flagship.

Several other nations are currently negotiating potential Rafale purchases. Peru is in talks to acquire 24 jets, while Argentina and Indonesia have shown interest but have yet to formalize orders. In the meantime, Ukraine is set to receive Mirage 2000-5 jets from France.

While the Mirage 2000-5 may not possess the advanced capabilities of the Rafale, these aircraft will significantly enhance Ukraine’s air-to-air combat effectiveness. Expected to be delivered in early 2025, the Mirages are equipped with advanced electronic warfare systems that will improve their survivability in high-intensity combat scenarios.

The Mirage 2000-5 represents the latest version of this French fighter, featuring upgraded radar systems and the capability to utilize precision munitions like SCALP-EG cruise missiles, which Ukrainian forces are already using.

Although the Mirage 2000-5 is not specifically designed for direct engagements with Russian Su-35 fighters, it is anticipated to excel in intercepting cruise missiles and drones, as well as attacking ground targets using various air-to-ground munitions. This specialization renders it a valuable asset for Ukraine, particularly in a conflict where air defense remains critical.

However, experts note that, compared to the U.S. F-16, the Mirage 2000-5 has a more limited engagement range for air-to-air combat, with a maximum missile range of approximately 60 to 80 kilometers. In contrast, the F-16 can deploy missiles with ranges up to 160 kilometers, allowing for engagement from greater distances. Despite these limitations, the Mirage 2000-5 is well-positioned to play a crucial role in strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses as the conflict continues to develop.