A recent study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies examines whether the United States is adequately prepared for a potential conflict with China and identifies several critical vulnerabilities that could affect its ability to sustain a prolonged war.
Key Challenges
Despite efforts to expand defense production, the report concludes that the U.S. military continues to face significant shortages of long-range strike weapons, missile defense systems, interceptors, and unmanned platforms operating in the air, on the surface, and underwater. The challenge becomes even greater if the United States were required to deter or fight simultaneously in both the Indo-Pacific and European theaters.
Addressing these shortcomings will take time. Some essential munitions require three to four years between contract award and initial delivery, including SM-3 variants, SM-6 missiles, JASSM cruise missiles, and Tomahawk missiles. While recent Pentagon initiatives have increased production, analysts argue that current efforts remain insufficient to meet wartime demands.
The report recommends expanding long-term procurement contracts, investing in industrial infrastructure, ensuring the operational readiness of ships and aircraft, and increasing production of both sophisticated weapon systems and lower-cost mass-produced platforms envisioned under the Hellscape concept for the Indo-Pacific.
Researchers also stress the importance of accelerating military support for Taiwan. Unfulfilled U.S. arms deliveries are estimated at roughly $32 billion and include Harpoon anti-ship systems, NASAMS air-defense batteries, PAC-3 MSE interceptors, and Altius drones.
Munitions Shortages and Platform Readiness
The debate over U.S. military preparedness intensified following Operation Epic Fury and the subsequent conflict with Iran. Some observers argue that the large volume of weapons expended could complicate future defense plans for Taiwan, while U.S. officials maintain that stockpiles remain sufficient for national defense and ongoing operations.
The study highlights two central concerns: the capabilities required to counter China and the extent to which operations against Iran have affected those capabilities.
According to the authors, shortages of critical munitions existed long before the Iran conflict. However, extensive use of Tomahawk and JASSM missiles, along with Patriot and THAAD interceptors, further strained inventories.
The report also emphasizes that military readiness extends beyond ammunition stocks. Recent Iranian missile and drone attacks demonstrated the vulnerability of fixed military facilities. Similar threats could endanger U.S. installations throughout the Indo-Pacific, including bases in Japan, the Philippines, and Guam. In addition, years of intensive deployments have increased maintenance demands on aircraft and naval vessels, potentially reducing their availability during a future conflict.
Although U.S. weapons performed effectively during operations against Iran, analysts warn that inventories of long-range precision weapons were already limited beforehand. The conflict accelerated the depletion of these reserves, potentially creating challenges if another major contingency arises.
Air-defense inventories present a similar concern. During a brief period of operations against Iran in 2025, the United States reportedly used more than a quarter of its THAAD interceptor stockpile. Modeling suggests that a conflict involving China could consume more than half of available THAAD, Patriot, and SM-3 interceptor inventories.
Compounding the issue, replenishment timelines remain lengthy. Depending on the system, production can take between two and four years, while expanding factory capacity may require an additional 18 to 24 months.
The Growing Challenge from China
China continues to modernize its military across land, air, sea, space, cyber, and nuclear domains. Its defense industry produces ships, aircraft, armored vehicles, and missile systems at a scale that exceeds many Western competitors, while simultaneously investing in artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and advanced military applications.
Several CSIS war-game scenarios found that U.S. forces could exhaust key stocks of long-range missiles within the first week of a conflict over Taiwan. Taiwan itself could deplete much of its anti-ship missile inventory over the same period.
Without sufficient long-range strike capabilities, sustaining combat operations would become increasingly difficult because Chinese defenses could prevent U.S. aircraft and ships from approaching close enough to employ shorter-range weapons effectively.
The U.S. military maintains a substantial presence throughout the Indo-Pacific, including forces stationed in South Korea, Japan, Guam, and Australia. However, researchers warn that these deployments remain vulnerable to Chinese ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, hypersonic weapons, and drone attacks.
To mitigate these risks, the study advocates greater dispersal of forces and investment in hardened infrastructure, including protected fuel storage, ammunition bunkers, aircraft shelters, and active defensive systems.
The Hellscape Concept
A central component of U.S. planning is the Hellscape concept, championed by Samuel Paparo. The strategy aims to flood the Taiwan Strait with large numbers of unmanned systems, creating an operational environment that would significantly slow or disrupt a Chinese invasion.
The concept relies on extensive use of drones, unmanned surface vessels, and autonomous underwater vehicles to conduct surveillance, targeting, electronic warfare, mining operations, and direct attacks against Chinese forces.
By combining inexpensive expendable systems with more advanced platforms, military planners hope to delay Chinese operations long enough for additional U.S. and allied forces to respond.
Should China launch an invasion of Taiwan, the report argues that the United States would likely need to react within hours or days. This would require forward-deployed bombers, hardened facilities, missile defenses, and large pre-positioned stocks of fuel, ammunition, spare parts, and other supplies.
Five Critical Priorities
Researchers identify five major capability areas that require urgent attention:
- Undersea Warfare
- Expansion of the Virginia-class submarine fleet.
- Greater investment in unmanned underwater and surface vehicles for reconnaissance, mining, electronic warfare, and strike missions.
- Manned-Unmanned Air Integration
- Large-scale deployment of affordable drones for intelligence gathering, logistics, electronic warfare, and strike operations.
- Continued procurement of bombers and fighter aircraft, including the B-21, B-2, B-1B, B-52H, and F-35.
- Faster development of collaborative combat aircraft such as the YFQ-42A and YFQ-44A.
- Long-Range Precision Strike
- Increased production of long-range missiles such as LRASM, JASSM, Tomahawk, and PrSM.
- Development of lower-cost alternatives like the Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM) to sustain operations during prolonged conflicts.
- Air and Missile Defense
- Enhanced protection against drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic weapons.
- Deployment of directed-energy systems, high-powered microwaves, low-cost interceptors, AI-enabled sensors, and mobile defense networks.
- Advanced Enabling Capabilities
- Investments in multi-domain command-and-control systems.
- Expansion of AI-enabled software, cyber capabilities, electronic warfare tools, and space-based assets.
Urgent Recommendations
The report concludes that the United States should fully fund multi-year procurement contracts for essential munitions, improve the readiness of aircraft and naval forces, strengthen defenses at Indo-Pacific bases, and launch a national industrial mobilization initiative.
The study also points to America’s dependence on China for certain critical minerals used in defense manufacturing. While programs such as strategic stockpiling and overseas resource investments are helping mitigate the risk, analysts argue that much broader efforts are needed.
Maintaining readiness across major platforms—including the F-35 Lightning II, B-2 Spirit, C-17 Globemaster III, aircraft carriers, destroyers, and submarines—will require sustained long-term funding and industrial support.
The report ultimately warns that recent operations have once again exposed weaknesses in America’s defense-industrial base. Unless these shortcomings are addressed quickly, the United States could face significantly higher risks and costs in any future conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific region.
