The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program represents one of the U.S. Air Force’s most ambitious and strategically vital initiatives, aimed at developing a 6th-generation fighter jet to succeed the current 5th-generation platforms such as the F-35 and F-22. The program is critical for maintaining U.S. aerial superiority in the face of emerging threats, including advanced missile systems, drones, and autonomous technologies.

Strategically, the NGAD is essential as the U.S. confronts rising competition from near-peer adversaries, particularly China and Russia, both of which are heavily investing in next-generation military technologies. However, by the close of 2024, the program’s future became uncertain, with Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall indicating that escalating costs and development delays could lead to a reevaluation of its scope.

Initially envisioned as a breakthrough initiative, the development of a new 6th-generation fighter has proven to be far more costly than anticipated, particularly when factoring in the integration of drones and autonomous systems. Despite these financial hurdles, Kendall acknowledged that such investments could be justified by the long-term strategic advantages they might offer.

However, alternative strategies have emerged as potentially more cost-effective ways to meet the Air Force’s evolving needs. One such option involves developing an “F-35 follow-on,” which would offer an affordable solution capable of managing both manned and unmanned aerial assets. This approach would facilitate the integration of multiple combat platforms, enhancing the Air Force’s operational flexibility without the exorbitant cost of a new fighter jet.

Kendall also suggested prioritizing long-range strike capabilities, such as next-generation cruise missiles and standoff weapons, which would allow the U.S. to engage adversaries at extended ranges while keeping costs lower than developing new fighter aircraft. The integration of these systems into existing platforms could meet many of the strategic goals of the NGAD, particularly in terms of power projection.

Additionally, the Air Force could continue to expand its fleet of 5th-generation F-35s while accelerating the development of autonomous drones. While Kendall expressed reservations about relying solely on drones, he recognized their utility in specific roles such as surveillance and reconnaissance, where manned aircraft are not essential. However, he emphasized that human pilots will remain indispensable in certain combat scenarios.

As Kendall prepares to leave office, he has outlined his vision for the future of the Air Force over the next quarter-century. He stressed that while the core missions would remain constant, the service would need to evolve in response to emerging challenges. Key priorities include modernizing the nuclear triad, with a focus on the B-21 stealth bomber and the new Sentinel ICBM, as well as shifting to long-range strike platforms capable of conducting deep strikes.

The future Air Force will also require substantial investments in mobility and refueling capabilities to ensure operational flexibility in future conflicts. Kendall highlighted that autonomy and unmanned systems will play a central role in future military operations, with artificial intelligence and autonomous technologies becoming decisive factors in warfare. By 2050, Kendall anticipates that wars could largely be conducted through remotely operated systems, necessitating advanced sensors, communication, and decision-making technologies.

Kendall also emphasized the growing importance of space as a military domain, stressing the need for investment in space capabilities to monitor and counter adversary space assets. The U.S. Space Force will require significant expansion, with new systems to track space platforms and counter space threats becoming critical to future strategic success.

Despite the political and budgetary challenges that the Pentagon faces, Kendall underscored the necessity of continued innovation and technological advancement to maintain a strategic edge in future conflicts. Effective management of Pentagon resources and reforms will be essential for realizing these ambitious goals.