Russia is unlikely to launch an attack on any NATO country within the next two years, partly due to Europe’s rapid efforts to strengthen its military defenses in recent years, according to a new assessment by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service. However, analysts warn that Russia’s restructuring of its armed forces—particularly its focus on drones and large-scale ammunition production—indicates preparations for future major conflicts.
The annual intelligence report emphasized that while there is no immediate reason for alarm, Moscow is steadily expanding its military capabilities to offset improvements in European security. The report stated that Russia does not plan to conduct a military assault on Estonia or other NATO members in 2026, and a similar outlook is expected for next year, as European measures have forced the Kremlin to carefully weigh any potential military risks.
Estonia’s analysis was less severe than warnings issued in 2025 by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and other European officials, who cautioned about the possibility of a Russian attack in the near term.
Despite ongoing sanctions, Russia’s defense industry has continued to expand. Since 2021, artillery ammunition production has increased roughly seventeen times, rising from about 400,000 units to nearly seven million shells, mortar rounds, and rockets. In 2025 alone, Russian manufacturers produced an estimated 3.4 million artillery shells, 800,000 rounds for tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, 2.3 million mortar rounds, and 500,000 rockets for multiple-launch systems. Estonian intelligence estimated procurement spending at around one trillion rubles (approximately $12.6 billion) last year—still considerably lower than comparable production costs in Western countries. For instance, older 152mm artillery shells reportedly cost about €1,050 ($1,300) per unit in state procurement, several times cheaper than similar Western-made 155mm rounds.
Since 2023, Russia has also acquired up to seven million shells from allied partners, including Iran and North Korea.
A major development highlighted in the report is Russia’s growing emphasis on unmanned warfare. Drone capabilities are being integrated across all branches of the military, and Estonia’s intelligence service warned that future conflicts could involve large-scale deployment of unmanned systems across air, sea, and land domains simultaneously. Analysts also noted that Russia’s navy has formed new surface strike drone units, which are expected to be incorporated across fleets such as the Baltic Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla.
These unmanned naval systems are expected to strengthen Russia’s intelligence, strike, and precision capabilities near Estonia’s borders. In response, Estonia is accelerating its own unmanned systems program and plans to integrate drone technologies across its defense forces in the coming years. Recently, the country announced that the Nordic Investment Bank would provide an €11.4 million loan to establish a new drone technology unit within Tallinn’s Applied Research Centre, which will develop and test aerial, ground, and naval drone systems.
