Russian President Vladimir Putin has refuted claims that an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was responsible for the recent attack on Dnipro, asserting that the weapon used was the 9M729 Oreshnik missile. Meanwhile, experts, including Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, have questioned Ukraine’s assertions regarding the missile’s classification. Cancian pointed out that the United States would have detected an ICBM launch, as such missiles are typically not equipped with conventional warheads. He further speculated that the missile in question likely had a shorter range and lower flight trajectory, consistent with a medium-range ballistic missile rather than an ICBM.
U.S. officials echoed this assessment, stating that initial indications pointed to the use of a medium-range missile. The 9M729, or SSC-8, falls within the category of intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs), which have a range of 3,000 to 5,500 kilometers, significantly shorter than that of ICBMs, which can exceed 5,500 kilometers. These IRBMs are designed for regional strikes, typically targeting military or strategic infrastructure within neighboring countries.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had earlier described the attack as involving a Russian ICBM, suggesting that Russia was using Ukraine as a “testing ground” for advanced weaponry. However, the 9M729 Oreshnik is not classified as an ICBM but rather a conventional missile with the ability to carry both conventional and nuclear payloads. Its deployment was at the center of the controversy surrounding the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty, a decision spurred by Russia’s violation of the treaty through the development of missiles with ranges prohibited under the accord.
The 9M729, developed by Russia’s Novator missile company, is considered a direct violation of the INF Treaty due to its range and deployment on ground-based platforms. U.S. intelligence reports suggest that the missile has been operational for several years, despite Russia’s efforts to obscure its true nature. Experts believe the missile’s mobility and low-altitude flight profile make it difficult for adversaries to detect or intercept.
In summary, while Ukraine’s claim of an ICBM strike remains contentious, the 9M729 missile’s capabilities place it as a significant part of Russia’s medium-range missile arsenal, with strategic implications for regional security.
